Pensions and Retirement Training Course on Scenario Planning for Demographic Shocks

Module 1: Introduction to Demographic Shocks and Pension Systems
Overview of demographic risk in pensions
Key drivers: fertility rates, longevity, migration, and labor force participation
Historical examples of demographic shocks and their impacts
Discussion: How demographic uncertainty threatens pension solvency
Case study: Lessons from aging populations in OECD economies

Module 2: Understanding Pension Demographics and Data Sources
Collecting and analyzing demographic and population data
Interpreting national and plan-level demographic indicators
Using population projections and life tables
Exercise: Building a demographic profile of a sample pension plan
Case study: Data quality and demographic modeling challenges

Module 3: Scenario Planning Fundamentals
Principles of scenario planning for long-term pension sustainability
Developing baseline, optimistic, and adverse scenarios
Identifying key assumptions and drivers
Workshop: Constructing demographic scenarios for a defined benefit plan
Discussion: Linking scenario planning to strategic decision-making

Module 4: Modeling Longevity and Mortality Shocks
Methods for projecting mortality improvements
Quantifying longevity risk and its impact on liabilities
Assessing the impact of unexpected mortality trends
Exercise: Simulating longevity shocks using sample mortality data
Case study: Longevity shocks in European and Asian pension systems

Module 5: Fertility, Workforce, and Migration Scenarios
Modeling fertility and population growth effects on pension inflows
Impact of shrinking workforces on contribution rates and funding ratios
Migration trends and their role in pension sustainability
Workshop: Building workforce-based scenario models
Discussion: Policy and funding implications of demographic shifts

Module 6: Quantitative Tools for Scenario and Stress Testing
Techniques for sensitivity and stress testing in pension projections
Using stochastic models for demographic uncertainty
Integrating demographic and financial variables
Exercise: Running stress tests on sample pension portfolios
Case study: Stress testing methodologies from global pension regulators

Module 7: Policy and Strategic Responses to Demographic Shocks
Adjusting retirement age, contribution rates, and benefit formulas
Encouraging private savings and multi-pillar system diversification
Introducing longevity risk-sharing mechanisms
Workshop: Designing a policy response for a shrinking contributor base
Discussion: Ethical and social considerations in policy reform

Module 8: Communication and Stakeholder Engagement
Explaining demographic risks and scenario results to trustees and members
Creating effective visuals and scenario dashboards
Framing complex demographic data for non-technical audiences
Exercise: Presenting demographic risk findings to a board
Case study: Effective communication in pension reform planning

Module 9: Integrating Scenario Planning into Pension Risk Frameworks
Embedding demographic scenario analysis into ALM and funding strategies
Using scenario planning for investment and actuarial decisions
Creating early warning indicators for demographic risks
Workshop: Designing an integrated demographic risk framework
Discussion: Linking demographic and financial scenario management

Module 10: Case Studies and Practical Applications
Global case studies on demographic scenario planning and reforms
Group simulation: Designing and testing demographic shock scenarios
Lessons learned from successful and failed adaptation strategies
Developing actionable recommendations for long-term pension resilience
Final discussion, review, and certification